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4yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 97

Plumpton · Mansell McTaggart Mane Event Handicap Hurdle · 3m 217y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded 2 wins and a second (chasing home one on the up) at Worcester this summer. Disappointed off his revised mark there last time. May well bounce back for a change of headgear, though, as he bids for a third success under Sean Bowen.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Taunton 17/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 90 · 2m3f1y Goo 143 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 90 par17/015OR 905 @ Taunton 09/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 2m7f198y Goo 142 · below its mark09/03/2026 · OR 86 par5 @ Wincanton 01/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 84 · 2m3f179y Gd 142 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 84 par1/045OR 845 @ Ffos Las 21/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 82 · 2m4f Goo 142 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 82 par5 @ Ffos Las 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 83 · 2m4f Goo 143 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 83 par5/055OR 835 @ Worcester 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 2m4f Gd 143 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Worcester 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 89 · 2m4f Goo 147 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 89 par10/075OR 895 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 91 · 2m7f Gd 152 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 91 par5 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 98 · 2m7f Gd 156 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 98 par19/085OR 98projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Worcester58th8th0
2026-07-22Worcester51st1st0
2026-07-10Worcester52nd2nd0
2026-06-19Market Rasen50
2026-05-28Worcester51st1st0
2026-05-05Ffos Las54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0121/0410/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20267th18/15%50%+0.45
09/03/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
01/04/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
21/04/20262nd10/382%83%+0.01
05/05/20264th4/179%67%-0.12
28/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
10/07/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
22/07/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
19/08/20268th15/890%50%-0.40