5
Stage Show
6yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 76
Plumpton · Mansell McTaggart Mane Event Handicap Hurdle · 3m 217y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Exeter | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wincanton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 66/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |