Zillow
6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 122
Plumpton · Friends & Family Remembering Norman Sharpe Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 195y
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 2 | +1 | ||
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 15th | 13th | +2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cheltenham | 2 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2025 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 7% | +0.01 |
| 05/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/12/2025 | 15th | 13/2 | 66% | 7% | -0.59 |
| 13/03/2026 | 18th | 50/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 04/04/2026 | 15th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 29/08/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |