A Tickatickatiming
8yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 88
Plumpton · Only Horsepower Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 116y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Stratford | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Stratford | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Fontwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Plumpton | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-03-16 | Plumpton | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-23 | Plumpton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 10/03/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 12/01/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 23/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |