Bread And Butter
11yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 83
Plumpton · Only Horsepower Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 116y
#4
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Fontwell | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fontwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wincanton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Plumpton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Huntingdon | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2025-11-22 | Huntingdon | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/09/2025 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 22/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 22/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 16/03/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 01/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |