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6

Captain Connor

4yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 81

Plumpton · Only Horsepower Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 116y

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising start for this yard when second at Stratford but failed to back that up at Newton Abbot 2 weeks ago, no great surprise given his overall record.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Huntingdon 22/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m7f171y Goo 15622/1154 @ Catterick 16/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS16/1244 @ Wetherby 22/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS22/0145 @ Market Rasen 05/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 89 · 2m4f139y Gd 152 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 89 par5/075OR 895 @ Uttoxeter 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m7f168y Gd 150 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 86 par24/075OR 865 @ Stratford 25/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 2m6f7y GF 155 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 83 par25/085OR 835 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 83 · 2m5f122y Gd 158 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 83 par7/095OR 83projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot57th7th0
2026-08-25Stratford52nd2nd0
2026-07-24Uttoxeter58th8th0
2026-07-05Market Rasen57th7th0
2026-02-28Kelso3+2
2026-01-22Wetherby48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/115/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20253rd14/126%75%+0.49
16/12/20254th22/10%63%+0.63
22/01/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
05/07/20267th28/10%14%+0.14
24/07/20268th12/137%30%-0.07
25/08/20262nd33/10%86%+0.86
07/09/20267th18/15%14%+0.09