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5

Khalk'eau Spigao

4yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 81

Plumpton · Only Horsepower Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 116y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made his first real impact off a reduced mark when fitted with first-time headgear, finishing third at Fontwell last month, and is not to be taken lightly now he has been eased another 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Fontwell 16/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f162y GS 154 · HIGHER CLASS16/1144 @ Fontwell 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m1f162y GS 149 · HIGHER CLASS27/0344 @ Plumpton 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f195y Gd 150 · HIGHER CLASS19/0444 @ Fontwell 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 88 · 2m3f29y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 88 par14/054OR 885 @ Worcester 01/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 86 · 2m4f Gd 153 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 86 par1/075OR 865 @ Fontwell 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 2m3f29y Gd 154 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 83 par28/085OR 83projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Fontwell53rd3rd0
2026-07-01Worcester57th7th0
2026-05-14Fontwell45th4th+1
2026-04-19Plumpton45th4th+1
2026-03-27Fontwell47th6th+1
2025-11-16Fontwell44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1127/0319/0414/051/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +6.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/11/20254th7/491%50%-0.41
27/03/20267th12/137%14%-0.23
19/04/20265th80/10%33%+0.33
14/05/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
01/07/20267th9/276%40%-0.36
28/08/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09