7
Porridge
6yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 74
Plumpton · Only Horsepower Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 116y
#8
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Southwell | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-23 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Fontwell | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Fontwell | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Fakenham | 4 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2024 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 21/07/2024 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 19/11/2024 | 3rd | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/12/2024 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/12/2024 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 250/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 14/05/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |