2
Bolkhov
4yo Gelding · 9-4
Strasbourg · Prix Alsace Lait (prix Du Rhin) Stakes · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
95%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-08-08 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Compiegne | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 62% | +0.25 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 85% | +0.14 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |