6
Coktail
4yo Gelding · 8-11
Strasbourg · Prix Alsace Lait (prix Du Rhin) Stakes · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-03 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-12-09 | Chantilly | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Deauville | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength93%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 03/06/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 09/12/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 03/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |