4
Laith
4yo Colt · 8-11
Strasbourg · Prix Alsace Lait (prix Du Rhin) Stakes · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength44%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-05 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 17th | 13th | +4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-11-21 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 04/09/2025 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 05/10/2025 | 16th | 16/1 | 16% | 12% | -0.04 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 05/04/2026 | 17th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |