5
Tharpe
5yo Gelding · 8-10
Strasbourg · Prix Du Pmu Bistro Des Brasseurs A Mutzig - Fondation Claude Pompidou Handicap · 1m 3f 149y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Strasbourg | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Strasbourg | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Strasbourg | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 21/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 77% | +0.16 |
| 02/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 79% | -0.11 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 19/07/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.38 |