12
Naturally Star
3yo Filly · 8-13
Vincennes · Prix France Alzheimer 2026 (px Bagneres) - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#7
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-10 | Enghien | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Enghien | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Vincennes | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 05/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |