11
Newton Ellis
3yo Colt · 9-6
Vincennes · Prix France Alzheimer 2026 (px Bagneres) - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-01 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Enghien | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-01 | Enghien | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-13 | Vincennes | 1 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength98%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 06/10/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |
| 10/11/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |