5
Nova Istoria Choc
3yo Filly · 8-13
Vincennes · Prix France Alzheimer 2026 (px Bagneres) - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#13
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vincennes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Enghien | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Enghien | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Vincennes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/12/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 29/06/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |