4
Heden Cruz
9yo Gelding · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix Georges Dreux - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Vichy | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Vincennes | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Cabourg | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Vincennes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Vincennes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-17 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 82% | +0.29 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |