2
Heuristique
9yo Mare · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix Georges Dreux - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#5
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Vincennes | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-17 | Cabourg | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Vincennes | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Vincennes | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vincennes | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 87% | -0.00 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 18/01/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 17/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |