9
Kapaula De L'epine
6yo Mare · 10-3
Vincennes · Prix Georges Dreux - Monte · 1m 6f 36y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Vincennes | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vincennes | 1 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 14/12/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 64% | +0.08 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 85% | +0.16 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |