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Journal Intime

7yo Gelding · 0-0

Vincennes · Prix De Clermont-ferrand - Attele · 1m 2f 96y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Vincennes 21/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 021/11C?C0 @ Vincennes 13/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 06 @ Vichy 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m5f202y Std 013/066C0 @ Vichy 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m6f146y Std 05 @ Pornichet 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 1m5f120y Std 02/0755 @ Mauquenchy 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 0C0 @ Chateaubriant 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m3f95y Std 07/08C?C0 @ Vichy 25/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m6f146y Std 04 @ Vincennes 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 011/094projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Vincennes44th4th0
2026-08-25Vichy?5th5th0
2026-08-07Chateaubriant?3rd3rd0
2026-07-23Mauquenchy54th4th0
2026-07-02Pornichet54th4th0
2026-06-23Vichy?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1123/067/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength57%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/20256th8/158%50%-0.08
13/12/202511th12/137%17%-0.20
13/06/20263rd6/168%83%+0.15
23/06/20263rd6/594%75%-0.19
02/07/20264th3/184%79%-0.06
23/07/20264th11/271%73%+0.02
07/08/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
25/08/20265th6/492%60%-0.32
11/09/20264th7/163%80%+0.17