11
Karolus Fair
6yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix De Taverny - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#8
Rank
Odds
45/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Mauquenchy | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Vincennes | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Le Mans | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Cherbourg | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Mauquenchy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1829% of fieldRange 11-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 58% | -0.10 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 10/09/2026 | 10th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |