10
Crumlin Lad
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 98
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 24/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |