1
Dewolf
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 90
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |