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9

Fracen Macho

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94

Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Woodbine 08/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fas 123 · beat its mark08/12/2024 · OR 87 par8/12C8OR 87C6 @ Woodbine 27/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 88 · 5f Fas 123 · below its mark27/04/2025 · OR 88 parC8 @ Woodbine 22/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 84 · 5f110y Fas 123 · below its mark22/05/2025 · OR 84 par22/05C8OR 84C7 @ Woodbine 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Woodbine 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 83 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 83 par6/06C8OR 83C8 @ Woodbine 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Woodbine 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 87 · 6f110y 121 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 87 par24/07C8OR 87C6 @ Woodbine 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 85 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 85 parC8 @ Woodbine 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 87 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 87 par29/08C8OR 87projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Woodbine?2nd4th−2
2026-08-09Woodbine?3rd3rd0
2026-07-24Woodbine?1st3rd−2
2026-06-26Woodbine?2nd4th−2
2026-06-06Woodbine?4th6th−2
2026-05-16Woodbine?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1216/0524/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/20241st4/179%100%+0.21
27/04/20254th8/158%40%-0.18
22/05/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
16/05/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
06/06/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
26/06/20262nd6/168%88%+0.19
24/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
09/08/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19
29/08/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07