2
Humber River
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 91
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/09/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |