3
Niagara Skyline
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 95
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |