4
Uncaptured Moment
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Woodbine · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength28%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |