1
Naughty Destiny
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |