4
Purrfect Girl
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 82% | -0.05 |
| 20/02/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 8/11 | 96% | 20% | -0.76 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |