2
Talent Show
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |