5
Decadent Danish
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 94
Woodbine · Race 4 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 26/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |