3
Next Pitch
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 93
Woodbine · Race 4 - Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/07/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 15/08/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |