1
Bongino Warrior
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 78
Woodbine · Race 5 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |