Dwight
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 50
Woodbine · Race 5 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |