Munnystruck

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66

Woodbine · Race 5 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-09	Woodbine	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-10-13	Woodbine	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2025-03-13	Fair Grounds	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6
2025-02-13	Fair Grounds	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength67%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/02/2025	5th	12/1	37%	50%	+0.13
13/03/2025	7th	14/1	26%	14%	-0.12
13/10/2025	6th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
09/08/2026	2nd	7/1	63%	80%	+0.17