2
Adapted
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 14/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/12/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |