5
Circle Back Jack
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Woodbine · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |