Compton
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 97
Woodbine · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |