6
Graffiti Writer
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90
Woodbine · Race 6 - Starter Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 28/11/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 13/12/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |