Joe West
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 8 - Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 15/01/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |