5
Sure Shot Timber
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 70
Woodbine · Race 8 - Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +24.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |