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14:55 · Bellewstown

Kilsaran Race

1m 4f 77yGoing TBC3YO plusTURF5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Top Pick1
OR 91
5/2
Count Bezukhov silks

Westerberg Ireland

Count Bezukhov

3yo Colt · 9-10

Wootton Bassett - Miss Yoda (Sea The Stars)

Declan McDonoghJ P O'Brien70%
3131
8.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Confirmed debut promise fitted with a tongue tie when winning 1¼m maiden at the Curragh in May and continued a theme of gradual progression to make a winning start in handicaps in 8-runner event at Listowel (1¾m, good to soft) 9 days ago. Better still to come so has to be considered.

Class Advantage

10/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a10/0523/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/059/07 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a9/0722/09 · C9 · finish vs mark above22/09 · mark par22/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 77y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 71%10/05Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%23/05Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 71%9/07Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%22/09
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.2%Ahead 3/4
5
2
OR 95
2/1
Magnum Cor silks

Millennium Stud SP ZO O

Magnum Cor

3yo Colt · 9-10

Sea The Stars - Miss Macnamara (Dylan Thomas)

J M Sheridan60%J P O'Brien60%
41
8.0

Sea The Stars colt who hails from a fine staying family and confirmed debut promise when winning maiden at Roscommon (1½m, good) just over 6 weeks ago. Looks useful and fancied to take another step forward upped in class.

Class Advantage

6/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a6/0818/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a18/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 77y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 4 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 77%6/08Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%18/08
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -4.0%Ahead 1/2
2
Market Fav3
OR 96
13/8
Abbotsford silks

Juddmonte

Abbotsford

3yo Gelding · 9-10

Frankel - Ruscombe (Dansili)

Billy Lee60%D K Weld60%
8217
5.0

Well-bred son of Frankel who was gelded and readily justified strong support in 1½m soft-ground maiden at Galway in late-July. Clearly not 100% upped to listed level at Leopardstown 6 weeks ago and looks the type to bounce back quickly.

Class Advantage

5/12 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/123/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/0529/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a29/0720/08 · C1 · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par20/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 77y · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 8 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 46%5/12Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 89%3/05Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%29/07Pos 7 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 7 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 25%20/08
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -13.3%Ahead 2/4
1
4
OR 81
10/1
Narlita silks

B Fitzpatrick

Narlita

7yo Mare · 9-11

Guiliani - Nadine (Perugino)

Conor Cusack60%0/1−7lbH Rogers60%
640507
4.0
Cheek pieces

Posted a solid fifth in listed race at Galway last month but unable to make much impact back in handicap company both subsequent starts. Looks vulnerable to the 3-y-os.

Class Advantage

3/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below3/05 · mark par3/0520/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par31/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par8/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above8/09 · mark par21/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below21/09 · mark par28/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below28/09 · mark par28/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 77y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 44%3/05Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 17 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 6%31/07Pos 5 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 73%Pos 13 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 14%21/09Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 33%28/09
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength73%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +27.8%Ahead 4/4
4
5
OR 66
25/1
Dream Legend silks

E D Delany & Mrs Lisa Delany

Dream Legend

3yo Gelding · 9-10

Twilight Son - Play On Words (Lope De Vega)

James Ryan0/1E D Delany70%
013105
4.0
1st Hood +1

Looked on the up when bagging a pair of course handicaps this season, scoring emphatically on latter occasion in July. Not at his best on back of 13 lb weights hike when tenth of 15 at Navan (1m, good) just over 4 weeks ago. Hood on and faces a stiff task. Engaged 3.15 here Wednesday.

Class Advantage

1/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/04 · mark par1/0411/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/04 · mark par22/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/04 · mark par2/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par2/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below2/09 · mark par30/09 · C7 · finish vs mark above30/09 · mark par30/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 77y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 25%1/04Pos 1 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 82%22/04Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 10 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 36%2/09Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 69%30/09
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength12%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.6%Ahead 2/4