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6

Austrian Theory

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 68

Beverley · Season Finale Is Next Tuesday Selling Handicap · 1m 1f 207y

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not tasted success for almost 2 years but his mark reflects that and he again ran respectably when fourth in amateur riders' race at Haydock (11.6f) earlier this month. Assessor has eased him a little more ahead of this but others look stronger from a win perspective.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength82%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Pontefract 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 80 · 1m2f5y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 80 par20/104OR 804 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m1f170y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m1f35y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 79 par15/054OR 793 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m1f170y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 74 · 1m2f56y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 74 par12/064OR 744 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 74 · 1m3f39y GF 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 72 · 1m4f98y Sta 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 72 par25/074OR 725 @ Catterick 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 1m4f13y Goo 156 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 69 · 1m3f140y Sft 155 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 69 par3/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock54th4th0
2026-08-17Catterick53rd3rd0
2026-07-25Newcastle45th4th+1
2026-06-24Carlisle48th7th+1
2026-06-12York45th4th+1
2026-05-28Ripon37th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1028/0525/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20253rd2/189%82%-0.08
16/04/20265th20/10%56%+0.56
15/05/20269th4/179%11%-0.68
28/05/20267th20/10%33%+0.33
12/06/20265th18/15%76%+0.71
24/06/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
25/07/20265th50/10%67%+0.67
17/08/20263rd9/488%67%-0.21
03/09/20264th3/184%70%-0.14