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16:55 · Kelso

Weatherbys Racing Bank Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m 5f 133yGoing TBCClass 44YO plusTURFHandicap4 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick1
OR 108
7/4
Fairlawn Skipper silks

Ross, Tom, Helena Partnership

Fairlawn Skipper

6yo Gelding · 12-0

Schiaparelli - Joe's Island (Trans Island)

Shane Fenelon60%2/7M Bowen60%
901U12
7.0Going 10.0

Back on song on first start in a 0-100 when seeing off 8 rivals at Cartmel in July. Resumed winning ways at Newton Abbot (3¼m) 9 days ago before again running well when runner-up at Sedgefield on Monday. Interesting chasing debutant though drop back in trip not ideal.

Class Advantage

18/11 · C4 · finish vs mark below18/11 · mark par18/1113/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below13/05 · mark par6/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par7/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par14/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below14/09 · mark par14/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 133y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 0%18/11Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 11 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 11 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 0%6/06Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%7/09Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 50%14/09
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.7%Ahead 2/4
3
Market Fav2
OR 100
11/10
Limerick Leader silks

Team Tristar (uk) Ltd

Limerick Leader

9yo Gelding · 11-13

Joshua Tree - Out Law D'oc (Rahotep)

Freddie Keighley60%0/1Nick Scholfield60%
233411
8.0Going 8.0
BlinkersTongue strap

Bounced back under an attacking ride to capitalise on a reduced mark in a 7-runner event at Bangor earlier in the month and proved at least as good when following up in 3-runner event at Sedgefield (3¼m) last week. Back in trip but should get own way in front again so respected under a penalty.

Class Advantage

9/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par9/0623/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/06 · mark par13/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below13/07 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par4/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par9/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/09 · mark par9/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 133y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 83%9/06Pos 3 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 3 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 33%13/07Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 100%4/09Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%9/09
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -11.4%Ahead 2/4
4
4
OR 87
12/1
Moonlightinthepark silks

Mr G Malanga

Moonlightinthepark

5yo Mare · 10-7

Walk In The Park - Lostintransaction (Mahler)

Charlie Maggs60%−3lbO Greenall & J Guerriero
6796P4
3.0
Tongue strap

Runner-up to a promising one sole start in Irish points but it was all rather underwhelming under Rules last season. Showed aptitude for chasing at the second attempt and possibly just needed the run after 5 months off at Bangor (2½m, good) recently. More needed here.

Class Advantage

26/11 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a26/1117/12 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a30/12 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/02 · mark par8/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below8/03 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 133y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 25%26/11Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 7 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 33%30/12Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 38%8/03Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 50%4/09
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +37.0%Ahead 4/4
1
3
OR 108
5/1
Rockstown Girl silks

Mr Kenneth James Farmer

Rockstown Girl

8yo Mare · 12-0

Iffraaj - Miss Marina Bay (Galileo)

James Smith60%1/5A McCann60%
123367
3.0Class ↓4
Tongue strap

Fair hurdler/chaser who got back to winning ways in handicap hurdle at Down Royal in March. Placed on next 3 outings and shaped as if still in good heart when sixth in maiden chase at Wexford in June. Respected but yard 1 from 32 with British runners so far. Engaged 3.30 Uttoxeter Tuesday.

Class Advantage

17/03 · C10 · finish vs mark above17/03 · mark par17/0310/04 · C10 · finish vs mark below10/04 · mark par15/05 · C10 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par14/06 · C11 · finish vs mark below14/06 · mark par30/06 · C10 · finish vs mark below30/06 · mark par15/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 5f 133y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%17/03Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 93%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 85%15/05Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 82%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 62%30/06Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 45%15/09
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.5%Ahead 3/4