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15:55 · Kelso

Borders Carers Centre Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m 4f 189yGoing TBCClass 44YO plusTURF3 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 122
8/11
Hoe Joly Smoke silks

Babbitt Racing

Hoe Joly Smoke

8yo Gelding · 11-7

Black Sam Bellamy - My Miss Lucy (Alflora)

Harry Skelton80%3/14D Skelton80%
356621
7.0Going 10.0Class ↓3
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Dual chase winner who was a good third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November. Made the most of a good opportunity back over hurdles when winning a 5-runner novice at Bangor (2½m) and he sets the standard for all he's not the most robust.

Class Advantage

15/11 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/11 · mark par15/1113/12 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/12 · mark par21/02 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below21/02 · mark par17/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below17/04 · mark par13/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/05 · mark par4/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 189y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 82%15/11Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 56%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 58%21/02Pos 6 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 6 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 38%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 50%13/05Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%4/09
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -22.4%Ahead 1/4
1
2
OR 114
5/2
Handmedownastar silks

Mr Simon Smode

Handmedownastar

6yo Gelding · 11-7

Diamond Boy - Breaffy House Lady (Shantou)

S Bowen80%0/1Nick Scholfield
213215
6.0

Irish point winner who went the right way in 3 hurdle starts for Seamus Mullins, nudged out for an 8-length success in a Fontwell novice in late-May. Looked and shaped as if in need of the outing when fifth of 8 in handicap at Cartmel (2¾m, good to soft) 16 days ago and he remains open to progress.

Class Advantage

14/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a14/034/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a4/0424/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/05 · mark par24/0531/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par31/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 189y · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 80%14/03Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 90%4/04Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 100%24/05Pos 5 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 5 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 43%31/08
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.3%Ahead 3/4
3
3
4/1
Hopeless Dancer silks

Mr Paul Davies

Hopeless Dancer

5yo Gelding · 11-0

Dragon Dancer - Caerlonore (Traditionally)

Harry Reed60%T Reed
32232
7.0

Placed in bumpers and hurdles for the Twiston-Davies stable but his form over timber is no better than modest. Will need improvement if he's to strike on this first outing for a new yard after a 9-month break.

Class Advantage

15/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a15/091/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a28/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a6/11 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/12 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a3/12projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 4f 189y · 20%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 78%15/09Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 83%1/10Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 88%28/10Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 0%6/11Pos 2 · SP 4/11 | Expected: 98%Pos 2 · SP 4/11 | Actual: 80%3/12
Projected finish3rd of 30% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -20.5%Ahead 1/4