8
Dr Rio
10yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 65
Beverley · Season Finale Is Next Tuesday Selling Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Beverley | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Beverley | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 09/06/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |