3
Shimmering Sands
7yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 74
Beverley · Season Finale Is Next Tuesday Selling Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-26 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |
| 16/08/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/5 | 83% | 71% | -0.12 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 85/40 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |