Court Legend
2yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 64
Beverley · Young Guns Nursery · 1m 100y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 3 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 10/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |