4
Emerald Bay
2yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 67
Beverley · Young Guns Nursery · 1m 100y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |