4
Accrual
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 78
Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |