IvyArcIvyArc
2

Almarada Prince

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 80

Beverley · We Are Christmas Party Central Handicap · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run stretches back to 2024 but holding form well for new stable this year, making the frame in a trio of big-field York handicaps prior to again finding only one too good at Ripon (6f) 2 weeks ago. Respected back at the minimum trip with a good draw to work from.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 80 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 80 par8/104OR 804 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 82 · 6f Std 137 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 81 · 5f Std 131 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 81 par27/034OR 814 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 80 · 6f GS 130 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 79 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 79 par23/054OR 794 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 19 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 78 par11/074OR 784 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 80 · 6f Sft 140 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 80 par1/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Ripon42nd2nd0
2026-07-24York42nd2nd0
2026-07-11York44th4th0
2026-06-13York43rd3rd0
2026-05-23York46th6th0
2026-04-16Ripon46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1016/0411/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength85%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20252nd20/10%90%+0.90
12/03/20268th11/142%30%-0.12
27/03/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
16/04/20266th14/126%67%+0.40
23/05/20266th9/276%74%-0.03
13/06/20263rd14/126%90%+0.64
11/07/20264th6/168%83%+0.15
24/07/20262nd5/174%95%+0.21
01/09/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03